Geek's Number Talk: Where’s all the housing?

A lot of Bay Area cities are blaming each other for the housing shortage we’re all experiencing, but the truth is we aren’t building enough new housing anywhere, and we haven’t for a while.

Permits were issued for 119,636 new homes statewide in 2021 – just two thirds of the projected need – and this year it’s expected to be even less, with only a fraction in Santa Clara County. If this comes to pass, it will be the 30th year out of the past 35 that California has failed to meet housing production goals. And even permitted projects face false starts and stall outs due to shortages of labor and materials, as well as ever-present community pushback.

Bottom line: Unless hundreds of thousands of new homes are built this year and for many years thereafter, Bay Area home prices will continue to rise, and this will continue to be a seller’s market.

Geek's Number Talk: Santa Clara County Market Snapshot - April 2022

It’s the same story we’ve been seeing for a while in the Santa Clara County market, where sold houses in April were down 21% over last year, available houses are spending 33% less time on the market, and average sales prices are up a whopping 21% from ‘21!

Meanwhile, condos are spending less than half the time on the market that they did a year ago, but average sales prices are up just 10% year over year.

Geek's Number Talk: Decarbonizing Real Estate

More than 60% of carbon emissions in cities come from buildings, which is just one reason why there’s an international movement to decarbonize real estate through zoning codes, building standards, incentives, and more tools. Read this dispatch from the World Economic Forum annual conference.

Geek's Number Talk: Parenthood Deferred

Digging deep into the data, the Census Bureau recently found that people are having children later in life. Between 1990 and 2019, the median age of first-time parents rose from 27 to an all-time record of 30. A variety of factors are at play here but the bottom line is more people are having kids in their 30s and 40s instead of their 20s. This shift could also have a significant impact on when new families get into the housing market. The AP has more numbers.

Geek's Number Talk: The Honeymoon is Over

According to a new report from Redfin, average monthly mortgage payments are up 39% over just one year ago — a record spike — while interest rates are at their highest mark in more than a decade. But while median sales and asking prices are still rising, home searches, touring activity, and mortgage applications are all in decline, indicating a slowing market as buyers take pause. Get more numbers from Forbes.