Geek's Number Talk: Where’s all the housing?

A lot of Bay Area cities are blaming each other for the housing shortage we’re all experiencing, but the truth is we aren’t building enough new housing anywhere, and we haven’t for a while.

Permits were issued for 119,636 new homes statewide in 2021 – just two thirds of the projected need – and this year it’s expected to be even less, with only a fraction in Santa Clara County. If this comes to pass, it will be the 30th year out of the past 35 that California has failed to meet housing production goals. And even permitted projects face false starts and stall outs due to shortages of labor and materials, as well as ever-present community pushback.

Bottom line: Unless hundreds of thousands of new homes are built this year and for many years thereafter, Bay Area home prices will continue to rise, and this will continue to be a seller’s market.