New insights.

According to a new report from Freddie Mac, 30-year mortgage rates are projected to gradually decline in coming quarters, which could trigger a surge in buyer demand, primarily from first timers. However, a tight inventory will lead to only moderate sales increases, with prices rising 2.1% in 2024.

Meanwhile, boosted by an “AI boom,” median sales prices in the San José metro area are the first to exceed $2 million, and Silicon Valley’s appreciation rate is among the highest in the nation. Overall, 89% of U.S. metro areas saw year-over-year price gains.

Algorithm Appreciation

Rather than median sales price, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index uses a special mathematical formula based on the past few months of sales data to plot the course of home appreciation over time. As you can see from this graph, prices in the Bay Area have outpaced national trends since we emerged from the Great Recession.

San Francisco Market Update - December 2023

Has the home sales market in San Francisco finally begun to cool off, or is it just the chill of another atmospheric river? Inventory and median sales price were down year over year in December, and properties took a little more time getting scooped up. Meanwhile, condo prices in the City by the Bay saw a 9% increase from the same time in 2022, and opportunities were 10% more plentiful.

San Francisco Market Update

It was another tale of two markets during November in San Francisco. Home sales and median prices were up year-over-year, and properties spent less time on the market. On the flip side, condo sales and prices experienced a dip from 2022, and properties took longer to sell.

On the wrong track?

In a recent poll sponsored by the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, 77% of residents said the City by the Bay is heading in the wrong direction. Top concerns included crime, cleanliness, and costs. Meanwhile, hotel occupancy rates hit 61% in March, a 28% year-over-year increase. So it’s clear that folks from outside SF may have a different opinion.

All this could equate to opportunity for savvy buyers looking to take advantage of an exodus!