March 2023 Market Report

The numbers are in from March, and sales of single family homes remained slow in Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties, down as much as 40% year over year, with median prices 13% below what they were a year ago. But properties are spending more time on the market as buyers are still wary of high mortgage interest rates.

Interest rates trending down

In a sign that should bring a smile to the faces of homebuyers, daily and weekly average mortgage interest rates are on a downward trajectory in the wake of recent bank collapses. This could help to ease inflation and get the volatile market back on track in time for a summer warming.

While these data sets come from multiple sources with different methodologies to calculate their figures, the trends are extremely similar. That said, it can be difficult to predict short-term rate changes, so it’s important to keep the big picture in mind. For example, despite a spike over the past year, rates remain well below where they were in the 1990s.

State of the nation

Looking at the national economy, the Fed is ramping up to another 25 bps rate hike at their May meeting, but the job market isn’t feeling the recession burn. Unemployment sits at 3.5%, private payroll is on the rise, and 236K jobs were added in the past month. Meanwhile, interest rates remain unpredictable day to day.

When the Fed speaks, markets listen.

ICYMI: In an ongoing quest to fight inflation, the Federal Reserve recently raised its benchmark rate by 0.25 points to 4.75%-5%. So what does that mean for the housing market? The primary impact is reduced demand as buyers think twice about taking out long-term loans. Ironically, less demand could lead to lower home prices.

The Skimm explores this conundrum.