What recession?

Remember when economic experts were predicting another recession? Yeah, we don’t either. Looking at the U.S. GDP over the past two years, it’s clear our national economy is trending up. In other words, don’t believe the hype!

The Long Haul

Like we said earlier, you have to think big when it comes to home investments, and this chart says it all. While median house prices in Santa Clara County may have dipped a bit in 2023, they’re still more than double the pre-Recession peak in 2007. Want to see a more detailed report for your neighborhood? Request one today, and we’ll deliver it to your home or email.

Foreclosures on the rise

For the second year in a row, foreclosures are up across the country, and the trend has a lot of folks remembering the Great Recession. But we’re still nowhere near the levels we saw when that bubble burst. About 25 of every 100,000 homes in America had a distressed property or foreclosure filing in June, which is about 15 times lower than during the recession.

And the pain isn’t spread equally. The highest rates of foreclosure can be found in small to mid-sized metro areas like Modesto, which checks in at number ten on this list from Realtor.com.

Round and round it goes

Over the past 40 years, the Bay Area housing market has seen at least four major booms. Every time, experts said the good times would never end. Every time, they were wrong. Economists call this “irrational exuberance”.

Each of these booms – or upcycles – have been followed by market corrections, sometimes with devastating consequences, such as the Great Recession. Every time, experts predicted an endless downward spiral. Every time, they were wrong.

Like any industry, housing markets run in cycles. But despite all the booms and busts, our local market has always come back stronger than ever.

Whether it’s our status as a financial, innovation, and cultural center, spectacular natural beauty and open space, and diversity, inclusion, and opportunity, Silicon Valley continues to be one of the world’s great metropolitan areas.

State of the nation

Looking at the national economy, the Fed is ramping up to another 25 bps rate hike at their May meeting, but the job market isn’t feeling the recession burn. Unemployment sits at 3.5%, private payroll is on the rise, and 236K jobs were added in the past month. Meanwhile, interest rates remain unpredictable day to day.